X-Men Movies and the Post Hoc Fallacy:

This post is just for fun.  Self-improvement in here?  Not really.  Nerdy analysis of comic book movies.  Ohhhh yeah

We can all agree that X3: X-Men United sucked dick.  Frasier was Beast.  Juggernaut was 6 feet tall and gangly.  Cyclops DIED OFF CAMERA.

Instead of an epic battle we were treated to Pyro and Ice Man groan-fighting Dragon Ball Z style.

 

I HOPE we can also agree that First Class was great.

But after First Class’ weak opening weekend at the box office, people were claiming that X-Men movies without Wolverine just couldn’t hack it.  Critical praise be damned.  People voted with their dollars, and X3 was king.

To sell movie tickets, we needed more Wolverine.  We needed more RATNER!

UGHHHHHH

This is what they saw:

Best movie as measured by box office sales?  X3.  Worst movie?  First Class.  Sorry kids, Hollywood is all business.  Bring on more Ratner! But the moviegoers felt differently.  They said they actually LIKED First Class. And they said that X3 sucked.  Check out the Rotten Tomatoes scores:


The producers didn’t care what the people said though.  Money talks.  When they looked at the numbers they saw that:

1)  People’s reported enjoyment of the film doesn’t affect box office sales.  Just check out how X3 and Wolverine killed it while First Class tanked even though people liked it.

2)  We need more Wolverine.  And more Ratner.  Even if people think their movies suck, they outperform where it counts.  Wolverine + Ratner = Box Office Explosion

Except this line of reasoning is retarded.  It is an abuse of the post hoc fallacy.  Post hoc ergo propter hoc.  After this therefore because of this.  Let me explain . . .

I saw X3 the night it came out.  Midnight sharp.  And I wasn’t there because X3 is a great movie.

I was there because X2 was.

Bombshell: The performance of a show/book/movie has less to do with its own merit than it does with it’s direct prequel’s.

Just to illustrate the point, check out what happens when you line up the Rotten Tomatoes Score the Box Office haul from each X-Men movie with the Rotten Tomatoes Score from the PREVIOUS X-MEN movie.


TA-DA!

Brett Ratner could have put out just about anything and crushed it  And First Class was doomed thanks to X3 and Wolverine.  But I’ll bet that the First Class sequel kicks some serious ass.  And it won’t be because it deserves to (though it might).

Yes, I know this is not a brilliant breakthrough.  But it seems to have alluded Hollywood execs and pretty much everyone from the publishing/moviemaking world.

This pattern repeats everywhere.

I bought the hell out of Tim Ferriss’ 4 Hour Body.  I probably was responsible for 10 copies.  For one person, that is insane.

And I don’t think it is very good.

I bought the 4 Hour Body because the 4 Hour Work Week merited it.  And I didn’t buy the 4 Hour Chef because the 4 Hour Body let me down.

Please, lets realize this.  Success today is due in large part to work you did last year.  You reap what you sow.  So lets get the attribution right and start realizing WHEN we are doing the real winning and losing.


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